The Daily Ledger

S&P 500 −0.6% · NASDAQ −0.3% · DOW −1.2%

A Houthi strike on Saudi energy facilities and Canada's new retaliatory tariffs pushed oil toward $95 and hardened rate-hike bets ahead of Thursday's PPI, sending the S&P 500 down 0.58% to 7,673.52 and the Dow down 1.18% to 52,786.07. Most of the Dow's underperformance traces to one stock: Amgen fell 10.08% on read-through from Novartis's second failed cardiovascular trial in a week — Novartis itself dropped 13.93% — while Intel rose 9.05% on a reported chip price hike.

Iran and the U.S. traded strikes on oil tankers and warships in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, and President Trump escalated his campaign against a Fed rate hike by threatening to halt trade with surplus countries unless Chair Kevin Warsh's committee cuts instead. Thursday's PPI and Friday's CPI — not rhetoric from either side — decide whether the roughly 58%-60% odds of a September hike survive into the Sept. 15-16 FOMC meeting.

S&P 500 +0.1% · NASDAQ +0.4% · DOW −0.3%

Headline indices closed the week almost exactly where they started — the S&P 500 up 0.1%, the Dow down 0.3%, the Nasdaq up 0.4% — masking a five-session round trip through a real U.S.-Iran military exchange that sent WTI crude up 9.6%, a Fed-speaker whipsaw that swung September rate-hike odds from the high-60s down to 50% and back to roughly 59%, and an AI-capex trade that rewarded Dell's contracted backlog Wednesday and punished Broadcom's guidance Thursday.

S&P 500 −0.38% · NASDAQ −0.29% · DOW −0.51%

August nonfarm payrolls surged 162,000, nearly triple the roughly 53,000 consensus, pushing September rate-hike odds back up to about 59% from 52% before the report and unwinding Thursday's Waller-driven rally as the S&P 500 fell 0.38% and the Dow 0.51%, even as memory-chip stocks decoupled from the rate move, Lululemon cratered 17.38% on a guidance cut, and Tesla fell 5.92% after its Cybercab launch drew a federal safety audit.

S&P 500 +1.06% · NASDAQ +1.40% · DOW +1.18%

Fed Governor Christopher Waller's openness to holding rates steady cut September hike odds to roughly 50% from 63% and pulled the 10-year yield down to 4.76%, sending the S&P 500 up 1.06% and the Dow up 1.18% in their best session in a month even as Broadcom fell 2.74% on guidance despite a 221% jump in AI revenue and Snowflake surged 16.55% on the opposite read.

S&P 500 +0.46% · NASDAQ +0.45% · DOW +0.56%

A pause rather than a reversal in the week's two swing factors — WTI holding near flat at $90.63 and the 10-year Treasury yield settling back to 4.80%, unchanged, after touching 4.82% intraday, its highest since November 2023 — let the S&P 500 rise 0.46%, the Nasdaq 0.45% and the Dow 0.56%, snapping a three-day losing streak. Dell surged 15.81% on a raised $192 billion revenue guide and a record $95 billion AI-server backlog, Nvidia added 3.21% as Bloomberg reported advanced talks to buy Hugging Face for roughly $14 billion, and Palo Alto Networks fell 9.28% despite beating estimates as investors focused on soft first-quarter guidance.

S&P 500 −0.71% · NASDAQ −1.03% · DOW −0.79%

A fresh round of U.S. strikes on IRGC targets at noon ET, and Iran's threat of a "decisive operation" in response, pushed WTI crude up 5.7% to its first close above $90 in more than a month and lifted CME FedWatch's September hike odds to roughly 68% from 66% Monday, sending the S&P 500 down 0.71% and the Nasdaq down 1.03% even as ISM Manufacturing and JOLTS both missed estimates. Nvidia fell 1.51% on a report it holds the lease on the data center behind Anthropic's $35 billion Lambda cloud deal, Amazon slid another 1.87% on the FTC's ad-pricing lawsuit, and Exxon (+2.24%) and Chevron (+2.38%) captured the crude spike directly.

S&P 500 −0.33% · NASDAQ −0.12% · DOW −0.70%

The first direct U.S.-Iran military exchange in a month — U.S. strikes on rocket launchers in the Strait of Hormuz late Sunday, with Iran saying it retaliated against U.S. sites in Jordan — pushed WTI crude up 3.4% and CME's FedWatch odds of a September rate hike to roughly 66% from about 56% Friday, compounding Kevin Warsh's hawkish keynote. The S&P 500 slipped 0.33% and the Dow 0.70% as energy (Exxon +2.71%, Chevron +2.12%) diverged from fuel-cost losers like Delta (-2.59%), while Strategy's resumed Bitcoin buying sent the stock up 4.42%.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Friday keynote held through the weekend, with prediction markets still pricing a September rate hike as a coin flip even as Treasury widened Iran sanctions to a third-country bank and Iran's navy claimed "full control" of the Strait of Hormuz. The week ahead delivers the labor-market evidence behind that bet — ADP Wednesday and August payrolls Friday, against three straight months of downside surprises — alongside Broadcom and HPE earnings that extend last week's test of whether AI-capex guidance can keep clearing an already-elevated bar.

S&P 500 +0.5% · NASDAQ +0.8% · DOW +0.5%

The S&P 500 gained 0.5% and the Nasdaq 0.8% on the week as Nvidia's fiscal Q3 report — revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% year-over-year, and guidance of $107-108 billion clearing a Street consensus near $104 billion — powered Thursday's rally even though only one of eleven S&P sectors closed higher that day. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole debut Friday pushed September rate-hike odds to roughly 56% from about 36% a day earlier, hitting the Russell 2000 and gold hardest while the 10-year Treasury yield round-tripped to an essentially unchanged 4.72%.

S&P 500 −0.25% · NASDAQ −0.52% · DOW −0.02%

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote paired a bullish growth read with a hawkish inflation warning, and fed funds futures traders pushed the odds of a September rate hike to roughly 57% from 35% a day earlier; the S&P 500 slipped just 0.25% but gold cratered 3.43% and the Russell 2000 fell 1.39%, while PayPal separately collapsed 12.71% after its would-be acquirers walked from a $50 billion buyout.

S&P 500 +0.72% · NASDAQ +1.57% · DOW +0.20%

The Nasdaq jumped 1.57% and the S&P 500 0.72% as Nvidia's guide carried through to the regular session and a trio of software and security earnings beats sent Salesforce, CrowdStrike, and Okta each up 20%+, but technology was the only one of eleven S&P sectors to close higher and the equal-weighted index fell roughly 0.3% — a rally most of the market sat out ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote Friday.

S&P 500 −0.02% · NASDAQ −0.08% · DOW −0.21%

Indices drifted in an almost flat, directionless range as investors sat on hands ahead of Nvidia's report and digested a hotter-than-expected headline PCE print alongside an in-line core reading; crude held roughly flat at $82.23 as Iran and Oman discussed an interim framework for the Strait of Hormuz, and Nvidia itself slipped 1.6% in the regular session before beating its own revenue guidance by billions and guiding well above Wall Street after the bell.

S&P 500 +0.3% · NASDAQ +0.7% · DOW +0.3%

Chips bought back Monday's Nvidia price-hike selloff ahead of Wednesday's print — Micron rose 2.5% and Nvidia 2.2%, though Sandisk sat out the rebound — while crude fell another 4.6% as the sanctions risk premium finished deflating, and a pair of soft macro prints took the 10-year Treasury yield down 7 basis points to 4.64%.

S&P 500 −0.3% · NASDAQ −0.8% · DOW +0.3%

The S&P 500 slipped 0.3% and the Nasdaq fell 0.8% as chip stocks led a broad tech pullback — Sandisk lost 6.45% and Micron 5.83% on weekend reports that Nvidia will raise AI server prices more than 15%, a bigger hit to the suppliers than to Nvidia itself (-2.91%) — while Treasury Secretary Bessent's long-telegraphed Iran sanctions rollout sent crude down 2.4% even as Tehran issued its sharpest retaliation threat yet.

Iran's parliament advanced a Strait of Hormuz transit-fee law and its security chief threatened retaliation against any nation joining Monday's sanctions rollout, while bitcoin held near $77,300 through the weekend after Friday's push past $78,000. The week ahead converts three loose narratives into hard evidence: Treasury Secretary Bessent's sanctions text Monday, Nvidia's earnings against a consensus already above its own guidance Wednesday, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote Friday.

S&P 500 −1.4% · NASDAQ −2.1% · DOW −0.8%

The S&P 500 lost 1.4% and the Nasdaq 2.1% on the week as the 10-year Treasury yield round-tripped through a Wednesday buyback rally and a Thursday reversal before closing barely changed, at 4.72%. Underneath that stillness, size and structural layer decided who won: Nvidia absorbed Tuesday's memory-chip selloff far better than SanDisk or Micron, Merck held its gain better than Moderna gave back its cancer-vaccine surge, and Friday's bitcoin-driven rally was the week's one trade that didn't need cheaper money to work.

S&P 500 +0.43% · NASDAQ +0.43% · DOW +0.98%

Stocks closed a rough week with broad gains — Dow +0.98%, S&P +0.43% — but crypto-adjacent equities did the real moving: Robinhood surged 13.70% and Coinbase 8.20% as bitcoin topped $78,000 on regulatory optimism and a short squeeze, a risk rally that showed up even as the 10-year yield rose for a second straight session.

S&P 500 −0.87% · NASDAQ −1.00% · DOW −1.32%

Long yields backed up 4 basis points and erased Wednesday's Treasury-buyback relief in a single session, dragging the Dow down 1.3% on a Walmart-led selloff, while Moderna handed back a third of its cancer-vaccine rally and Merck barely moved — confirming which of Wednesday's two re-ratings was actually durable.

S&P 500 +0.21% · NASDAQ +0.16% · DOW +0.22%

A single Phase 3 melanoma trial nearly tripled Moderna's stock and added 12.6% to Merck, re-rating an entire technology beyond vaccines, while an index-wide session that looked placid on the surface (S&P 500 +0.21%) hid a bond market taking its cue from the Treasury's buyback desk rather than a hawkish Fed.

S&P 500 −0.69% · NASDAQ −1.33% · DOW −0.22%

A fresh leg up in bond yields and oil hit semiconductors hard — SanDisk fell 9% and Micron 7% — pulling the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow to two-week lows, while a weak housing-starts print and a flat close for Home Depot's earnings beat underscored the strain building in the real economy.

S&P 500 −0.52% · NASDAQ −0.32% · DOW −0.51%

The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.31%, its highest level since 2007, as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum lapsed and oil jumped — pulling the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow lower for a second straight session even as Applied Materials, Micron and SpaceX posted some of the day's biggest gains on company-specific news that had nothing to do with rates.

The 60-day U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum lapsed Sunday with no deal and no extension — Trump says "there's nobody to negotiate with," Iran says the deal "never began" — leaving the Hormuz blockade in place entering a week that tests both sides of last week's tape: Home Depot, Target, Lowe's and Walmart earnings read on whether Friday's retail-sales stumble was a trend, while Wednesday's FOMC minutes set the discount-rate backdrop ahead of Chair Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote.

S&P 500 +0.36% · NASDAQ +0.14% · DOW −0.56%

The S&P 500 (+0.36%), Nasdaq (+0.14%) and Russell 2000 (+1.12%, a record close) extended three straight weekly gains as AI-capex fear flipped to AI-capex proof — CoreWeave, Super Micro, Nebius and SanDisk all posted hard evidence of paying demand — but even that wasn't enough by Friday, when Applied Materials beat and raised guidance and still fell 5.12% on a stock already priced for perfection. Oil rose more than 5% on the week as Hormuz rhetoric hardened, pulling the 10-year yield back to 4.70% even after cooling inflation data had dragged it to 4.64% midweek.

S&P 500 −0.17% · NASDAQ −0.28% · DOW −0.20%

Applied Materials beat Wall Street on revenue and profit and guided the fourth quarter well above consensus, then fell 5.12% anyway — a verdict on a stock up roughly 108% this year that had already priced in a flawless quarter. Reddit jumped 12.63% on mechanical S&P 500 inclusion and SanDisk added another 7.40% to Thursday's investor-day surge, but soft July retail sales, a five-month-low consumer-sentiment reading, and escalating U.S.-Iran rhetoric over the Strait of Hormuz pulled the S&P 500 and Nasdaq off Thursday's record highs while pushing Treasury yields and oil higher together.

S&P 500 +0.65% · NASDAQ +0.81% · DOW +0.13%

SanDisk surged 13.67% after an investor day in which it locked in roughly two-thirds of its fiscal 2028 memory output through new multi-year customer contracts, pulling SK Hynix, Western Digital and Micron higher with it and extending this week's AI-capex-to-cash-flow story from compute into storage. A cooler-than-forecast July PPI print pulled the 10-year yield down 4 bp and September hike odds under 40%, carrying the S&P 500 through 7,800 for the first time, while Netflix jumped 5.43% on a new Ackman stake and WTI fell 2.40% on reports of easing Hormuz supply risk.

S&P 500 +0.26% · NASDAQ +0.54% · DOW −0.04%

CoreWeave (+19.3%), Super Micro (+19.0%) and Nebius (+34.1%) all surged after Q2/fiscal Q4 results beat on revenue and margin and raised guidance — the clearest evidence yet that AI-infrastructure demand is real, a day after three straight sessions of capex-financing anxiety. A tame July CPI print left the S&P 500 up 0.26% and September hike odds easing, though the 10-year Treasury yield closed flat.

S&P 500 −0.32% · NASDAQ −0.60% · DOW −0.34%

Alphabet fell 3.84% as a same-day antitrust complaint from roughly 300 French publishers over its AI Overviews search summaries compounded scrutiny of the $25 billion debt offering it closed this week to fund AI-era capex — a third financing structure for the AI buildout in three sessions, after Monday's Nvidia vendor-financing report and Intel's share sale. Small caps were the lone gainer as the Russell 2000 rose 0.32% and WTI crude extended its Hormuz-driven climb to $83.23, ahead of Wednesday's CPI.

S&P 500 −0.06% · NASDAQ −0.32% · DOW −0.11%

Nvidia fell 2.86% on a Financial Times report it is assembling a roughly $500 billion venture with Apollo Global, Blackstone, BlackRock, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR to finance the AI infrastructure its own customers are buying, and Intel fell 4.5% on a $15 billion share sale to fund its own AI-era buildout — two capital-raising stories the market priced as costs, not demand confirmation, on a session where a Hormuz-driven 5.05% jump in WTI crude pushed the 10-year yield to 4.70% and tested the discount-rate trade behind Friday's record close.

Iran's foreign minister said Saturday that Tehran is "very close" to a transit-corridor deal with Oman but that the Strait of Hormuz "will not open" until the U.S. lifts its naval blockade — hours before an Abu Dhabi-owned tanker was struck transiting the strait. The week ahead brings Wednesday's CPI as the first test of whether the dovish rate read behind Friday's record close survives an inflation print, alongside CoreWeave, Cisco, and Applied Materials earnings that will show whether last week's AI-capex "beat, raise, and sell" pattern persists.

S&P 500 +3.58% · NASDAQ +5.19% · DOW +2.96%

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at records and posted their best week since mid-April (+3.58% and +5.19%), but the path there ran through a mid-week stretch where beat-and-raise earnings from Western Digital, AMD, and SpaceX all got sold on the size of their AI-capex bill. Friday's surprise 23,000-job payrolls loss flipped that pattern outright, pulling the 10-year yield down 11 bp on the week to 4.64% and sending Atlassian, Airbnb, and Cloudflare higher on beats that would have been punished 48 hours earlier. Gold posted its best week since January (+7.35%) as WTI crude fell 7.67% on Hormuz de-escalation hopes that never firmed into a signed deal.

S&P 500 +0.62% · NASDAQ +1.30% · DOW +0.28%

July payrolls fell 23,000 against a consensus near 80,000 gains, and the unemployment rate still dropped to 4.1% from 4.2% — because the labor force shrank by 264,000, pushing participation to a five-year low of 61.4%. Traders read the miss as room for the Fed to hold rather than tighten, sending the S&P 500 to a fresh record (+0.62%) and rewarding a run of earnings beats — Atlassian (+32.5%), Doximity (+32.6%), Airbnb (+14.3%) and Cloudflare (+7.9%) — in a sharp reversal of the week's earlier "beat and sell" pattern.

S&P 500 −0.18% · NASDAQ −0.06% · DOW −0.85%

Western Digital beat Q4 estimates and guided the new quarter above consensus on both revenue and EPS — and still fell 13.03%, joined by a SanDisk margin guide-down (-6.81%) that extended the week's memory-sector reckoning to Micron. The Dow's record streak snapped as jobless-claims data beat consensus and pushed the 10-year yield up 5 bp, even as WTI crude jumped 2.75% on unresolved Strait of Hormuz risk and SpaceX rallied 6.14% through its first insider-lockup expiration.

S&P 500 −0.17% · NASDAQ −0.85% · DOW +0.49%

Elon Musk told SpaceX's first earnings call as a public company that it will build "exclusively" on Nvidia hardware going forward, sending AMD down 7.04% even as it posted record quarterly revenue, while SpaceX itself extended its post-earnings slide to -13.61%. The Dow closed at a record on Middle East de-escalation hopes and a Disney earnings beat, while a weak ADP jobs report reinforced rate-cut bets and sent gold up 4.17%.

S&P 500 +1.79% · NASDAQ +2.59% · DOW +1.71%

The S&P 500 and Dow closed at record highs after Treasury Secretary Bessent said a Strait of Hormuz deal could land "today or tomorrow," sending WTI crude down 5.84% and the 10-year yield down 6 bp, while Palantir surged 29.45% on a blowout, guidance-raising quarter. AMD and newly public SpaceX both beat revenue estimates after the close and still fell in after-hours trading once investors saw the AI-capex bill.

S&P 500 +1.48% · NASDAQ +2.13% · DOW +1.32%

Stocks rallied broadly, with the Nasdaq up 2.13%, after President Trump said he had called off planned strikes on Iran and that Hormuz talks would begin Monday — a claim Iran's foreign ministry disputed even as WTI crude fell 5.44% and the 10-year Treasury yield eased 7 bp off last week's highest level since January 2025. A stronger-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI (55.6 versus a 54.0 consensus) added a second tailwind, and memory and AI-chip stocks recovered from an early slide tied to new Chinese AI-model competition to close broadly higher.

President Trump said Saturday evening he would hold off a planned round of strikes on Iranian energy targets after Gulf-mediated talks produced the outline of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — hours after a Qatari LNG tanker was disabled by a projectile strike in the strait and Saudi Arabia's crown prince personally urged him against escalation. Trump's own wording left the halt conditional, Iran's defense minister pushed back within hours, and the week ahead brings AMD's and Eli Lilly's earnings alongside Friday's July jobs report — the first hard data test of last Wednesday's hawkish Fed dissent.

S&P 500 +1.0% · NASDAQ +1.6% · DOW +1.0%

Microsoft's $450 billion single-day value gain — the largest by any company on record — helped power the S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow to a roughly 1%-1.6% weekly advance, but the same week delivered the Fed's most hawkish dissent since 2016, a 10-year Treasury yield at its highest since January 2025, and a reversal for Apple: down 7.3% Friday because the AI buildout it stayed out of is now bidding away the memory chips and fabrication capacity its own hardware needs. WTI crude fell more than 5% on the week as a shaky Iran ceasefire held for most of it, then cracked again Friday.

S&P 500 +0.70% · NASDAQ +1.00% · DOW +0.53%

Apple posted record fiscal third-quarter revenue and still guided below Wall Street, because the memory chips and advanced-node capacity it needs are being bid away by the same AI data-center buildout that just powered Amazon's best quarter in years. Reddit fell harder than either moved on a warning that Google's AI search is throttling its traffic, and the S&P 500 closed a turbulent July up 0.7% even as the 10-year Treasury yield pushed to 4.75%, its highest since January 2025.

S&P 500 +1.66% · NASDAQ +2.78% · DOW +1.19%

Microsoft's best day since October 2008 — up 15.5%, the largest one-day value gain by any company on record — answered yesterday's capex-funding question and powered the S&P 500's 1.7% recovery of Wednesday's Fed-driven slide, while Meta fell 8% on the wrong side of the same question. The bond market declined to celebrate: the 30-year held near a multidecade high as Q2 growth slowed to 1.5%.

S&P 500 −1.52% · NASDAQ −1.74% · DOW −2.19%

The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% for a fifth straight meeting, but the most divided dissent since September 2016 sent the 30-year Treasury yield to its highest level since 2007, and stocks took it badly — the Dow's worst session since April 2025 — as a missile exchange between Iran and U.S. forces pushed oil up 6.4% on the eve of Microsoft and Meta earnings.

S&P 500 +0.2% · NASDAQ −0.2% · DOW +1.0%

The chip and memory complex fell for a fourth straight session — AMD, Intel, Micron, and SanDisk all down sharply on a spillover rout from Korea — but Nvidia was little changed, letting Coca-Cola's earnings-driven record high carry the Dow even as the Nasdaq kept leaking value. Oil and yields fell for a third day into Wednesday's Fed decision, while July consumer confidence missed for a third straight month.

S&P 500 +0.02% · NASDAQ −0.18% · DOW +0.51%

Nvidia fell about 5% on a same-day double shock — a Chinese state-backed breakthrough in domestic chipmaking equipment and revived "circular financing" fears over a reported $250 billion OpenAI backstop — clearing the way for Apple to reclaim the title of world's most valuable public company. SanDisk, Seagate, and Micron slid alongside a blockbuster Shanghai IPO from Chinese memory rival CXMT, while a third straight day of the U.S.-Iran strike pause pulled oil and yields down and lifted the Dow.

Days after a Korea-led memory selloff knocked Micron and Broadcom on fears of an HBM glut, Samsung and SK Hynix answered over the weekend with roughly $950 billion in five-year supply commitments to Nvidia, Microsoft, and Broadcom — even as the U.S. and Iran paused strikes on each other for a second straight day and a Houthi attack on two Saudi refineries pushed Brent back above $100. The week ahead stacks a Fed decision delivered without forward guidance, Chair Warsh's press conference, and four Magnificent Seven earnings reports directly on top of that unresolved scarcity question.

S&P 500 −0.6% · NASDAQ −2.1% · DOW −0.4%

A week that opened with AI-infrastructure "takers" signing $12.6 billion in fresh contracts closed with the market auditing who is actually scarce — taxing Alphabet and Tesla for their capex, then knocking Micron and Broadcom off the safe side of that same trade on a memory-supply scare, while Apple got paid for staying out of the race. The S&P and Nasdaq booked a second straight losing week (-0.6%, -2.1%) as Brent's run past $100 pulled the 10-year to its highest since January 2025 before both eased back Friday.

S&P 500 +0.05% · NASDAQ −0.64% · DOW +0.46%

Apple gained 3.5% for staying out of the AI capex race while a Korea-led memory rout kept punishing Micron and Broadcom. Fresh U.S. tariffs took effect overnight, but oil and yields pulled back from Thursday's highs, letting the Dow and S&P claw back ground even as the Nasdaq lagged.

S&P 500 −1.21% · NASDAQ −2.15% · DOW −0.97%

Alphabet's $205 billion capex guide and a 14% Tesla drawdown handed the market its worst session in a month — while $100 Brent and a 4.70% ten-year raised the price of every long-duration promise.

S&P 500 −0.14% · NASDAQ −0.57% · DOW −0.01%

Super Micro's $60 billion order haul made it the S&P 500's best stock while the index idled into Big Tech earnings — then Alphabet and Tesla opened the checkbook after the bell, and late trading marked both down.

S&P 500 +0.89% · NASDAQ +1.29% · DOW +0.74%

Micron's 12% surge put the AI trade back on offense and the Nasdaq up 1.29% — a rebound priced against $91 Brent, a two-thirds collapse in Hormuz transits, and the first earnings where the Gulf war shows up as a revenue line.

S&P 500 −0.19% · NASDAQ −0.05% · DOW −0.59%

A drifting tape — the S&P off 0.19% — hid the session's real news: $12.6 billion of fresh AI-infrastructure contracts at Hut 8 and IREN, signed two days before the hyperscalers defend the budgets that pay for them. Crude's ninth-night grind higher and a 10-year back above 4.6% capped everything else.

Hormuz traffic roughly halved with thousands of seafarers stranded, and Wednesday's Alphabet and Tesla prints will decide whether last week's AI de-rating was a correction or the start of a repricing.

S&P 500 −1.6% · NASDAQ −2.9% · DOW −0.9%

A Chinese model release and a rare IBM profit warning drove the Philadelphia semis index into a bear market, a reignited Gulf war repriced oil, and the S&P gave back 1.6% — the week the market started asking AI for receipts.

S&P 500 −1.0% · NASDAQ −1.4% · DOW −0.8%

Moonshot's Kimi K3 — open weights, frontier claims — pushed the chip complex into a bear market and handed the S&P 500 its first losing week in three, while a widening Gulf war put crude up nearly 12% on the week. The bond market, notably, declined to panic.

S&P 500 −0.51% · NASDAQ −1.47% · DOW −0.20%

TSMC printed a record quarter and fell; GE Aerospace beat and raised and fell harder; Alphabet shed roughly $200 billion on a reported model delay. The session taxed spending and slippage, not results — and after the bell, Netflix's guide-down joined the theme.

S&P 500 +0.38% · NASDAQ +0.62% · DOW +0.29%

A second soft inflation print in two days and a BlackRock blowout pushed stocks higher and the 10-year down to 4.55% — while a shooting war at Hormuz was priced at 26 cents on a barrel of WTI. PayPal jumped 17% on a reported $53 billion take-private bid; SpaceX traded below its IPO price for the first time.

S&P 500 +0.4% · NASDAQ +0.9% · DOW +0.02%

A 3.5% June CPI took a July hike mostly off the table and bought the tape a relief rally — but the sharper signal was IBM's worst day on record: the enterprise IT dollar is being re-routed from software to the AI hardware underneath it.

S&P 500 −0.79% · NASDAQ −1.55% · DOW −0.26%

Washington reimposed its blockade of Iranian shipping and demanded 20% of every cargo transiting Hormuz — Brent jumped 9.6% while a memory-chip rout took the Nasdaq down 1.55%. Gold fell with stocks: the market read the day as an inflation shock, not a reason to hide.

The IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and CENTCOM answered with its heaviest strike wave of the war, while Tuesday packs June CPI, five money-center banks, and Kevin Warsh's first congressional testimony into a single morning — asked of a tape sitting about half a percent from its record.

S&P 500 +1.2% · NASDAQ +1.7% · DOW −0.5%

Samsung's record quarter got sold, Meta's plan to charge for compute got its best week since early 2024, and SK Hynix cleared the largest-ever U.S. listing by a foreign company at a 14% premium — the week the market stopped paying for AI evidence and started grading AI business models. The S&P added 1.2%.

S&P 500 +0.42% · NASDAQ +0.29% · DOW +0.29%

SK Hynix's $26.5 billion Nasdaq debut — the largest U.S. listing ever by a foreign issuer — closed 13% above pricing and lifted the memory incumbents it was supposed to threaten. The S&P added 0.4% to cap a 1.2% week while $71 crude kept pricing a shooting war at almost nothing.